Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Quevilly · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Quevilly are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Fleury 91 are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DDLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Fleury 91 hold a 21.7-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.7% in the Ligue 3, while Quevilly holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Quevilly
Probability
34.4%
Model confidence
14.7%
Quevilly has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60