QPR
HomeFulham
AwayThe model projects 1.62 xG for QPR and 0.81 xG for Fulham. Fulham's projected xG of 0.81 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.QPR's defensive record — 3 clean sheets in 10 matches — combined with Fulham's limited attacking output (3 clean sheets conceded in 10 games) supports the model's projection of at least one side keeping a clean sheet.
The model projects a combined xG of 2.42 — moderate attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.
Probability breakdown
QPR leads with 39% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
QPR Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0
QPR host Fulham in Championship. QPR have recorded LLDWWW in recent matches while Fulham arrive with a run of LLDWLD. These sides have met 10 times recently, averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Key factors
Why GoalVio backs this
QPR are generating a commanding xG advantage — 1.62 projected against 0.81 for Fulham. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.81 is the clearest signal in the model that QPR are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.
Biggest risk: The head-to-head record shows Fulham have won 7 of the last 10 meetings — a competitive history that suggests QPR's statistical advantage does not always translate into results against this specific opponent.
Risk factors
- ⚠These sides have drawn 2 of their last 10 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
- ⚠The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win QPR vs Fulham?
GoalVio's model predicts QPR to win with 39% confidence.
What is the predicted score for QPR vs Fulham?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Fulham?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in QPR vs Fulham?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.