Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qiziriq · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Qiziriq 0-3 BuxDu
Original prediction
Qiziriq
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 13:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 38.4% | 38.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.2% | 24.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.32 | 38.4% | 36.8% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Qiziriq
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Qiziriq has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
QiziriqLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 14 · avg 0.20/2.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
BuxDuLLLLL
GF 5 · GA 15 · avg 1.00/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
QiziriqBuxDu
18.2Attack28.8
22.7Defence15.2
7.6Form15.2
20.9Power23.6
1.28xG1.23