Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sogdiana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Qizilqum are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Sogdiana are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Sogdiana hold a 2.8-point power-rating edge (42.2 v 44.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.1% in the Super League, while Sogdiana holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sogdiana
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
13.1%
Sogdiana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40