Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-2
Qizilqum are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Neftchi are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Neftchi hold a 39.5-point power-rating edge (42.2 v 81.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 74.6% in the Super League, while Neftchi holds the strongest overall chance at 75% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
74.6%
Model confidence
74.6%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 16 · GA 2 · avg 3.20/0.40