Qingdao Jonoonvs
Beijing Guoan
COMPLETEDChina · Super League · 10/9/2026, 11:35:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beijing Guoan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Qingdao Jonoon 0-3 Beijing Guoan
Original prediction
Beijing Guoan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.45 | 14.4% | 17.7% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.06 | 18.3% | 19.6% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.38 | 67.3% | 62.7% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.0–29%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Beijing Guoan
Probability
62.7%
Model confidence
62.7%
Beijing Guoan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20