Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qatar · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Qatar 2-0 Bahrain
Original prediction
Qatar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 45.0% | 38.0% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.7% | 28.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.57 | 25.4% | 33.2% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Qatar
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Qatar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
QatarDLLLD
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BahrainLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
QatarBahrain
41.7Attack41.7
58.3Defence66.7
33.3Form58.3
45.9Power58.8
1.15xG1.15