Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Sadd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Qatar SC 2-6 Al Sadd
Original prediction
Al Sadd
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.72 | 15.9% | 28.8% | 12.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.91 | 18.5% | 24.4% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 1.39 | 65.5% | 46.8% | -18.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Al Sadd
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
Al Sadd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Qatar SCDLWDL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Al SaddWWLWD
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Qatar SCAl Sadd
66.7Attack100.0
33.3Defence66.7
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power88.7
1.57xG1.90