Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Qarabag are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Zira are 1W-2D-0L in their last 3 (DDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 8 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 19.2-point power-rating edge (75.9 v 56.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.5% in the Premyer Liqa, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.67