Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Twente · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Qarabag 1-4 Twente
Original prediction
Twente
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.98 | 31.1% | 35.9% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.7% | 26.9% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 43.2% | 37.3% | -5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Twente
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Twente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
QarabagWWWLD
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
TwenteLWDLW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
QarabagTwente
33.3Attack100.0
88.9Defence55.6
66.7Form44.4
64.7Power60.5
1.39xG1.32