Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Twente · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Qarabag are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Twente are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLD), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Twente hold a 12.0-point power-rating edge (56.2 v 68.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.2% in the UEFA Europa Conference League, while Twente holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Twente
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
13.2%
Twente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60