Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Qarabag are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Turan are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (WWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 26.7-point power-rating edge (75.9 v 49.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 70.9% in the Premyer Liqa, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 71% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
70.9%
Model confidence
70.9%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/1.00