Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Qarabag are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while SC Braga are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 23.3-point power-rating edge (71.2 v 47.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.5% in the UEFA Europa League, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20