Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Qarabag 1-0 Safa Baku
Original prediction
Qarabag
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.09 | 84.0% | 57.3% | -26.7 pts |
| Draw | 8.30 | 11.0% | 22.7% | 11.7 pts |
| Away | 18.10 | 5.0% | 20.0% | 15.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
57.3%
Model confidence
57.3%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
QarabagDWWLW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Safa BakuLLLWL
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
QarabagSafa Baku
66.7Attack16.7
66.7Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
83.3Power42.7
1.72xG0.90