Qarabagvs
Neftchi Baku
COMPLETEDAzerbaijan · Premyer Liqa · 10/17/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Qarabag 3-3 Neftchi Baku
Original prediction
Qarabag
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 49.3% | 38.2% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.2% | 27.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.70 | 24.5% | 34.7% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.47 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80