Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Qarabag are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Molde are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 25.6-point power-rating edge (71.2 v 45.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
52.6%
Model confidence
52.6%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40