Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Qarabag are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Malmo FF are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 37.5-point power-rating edge (71.2 v 33.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 67.2% in the UEFA Europa League, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 67% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
67.2%
Model confidence
67.2%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40