Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Qarabag are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Lyon are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 5.9-point power-rating edge (71.2 v 65.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Lyon holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lyon
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Lyon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 1 · avg 2.40/0.20
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20