Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Qarabag are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Kapaz are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDD), averaging 0.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 38.2-point power-rating edge (75.9 v 37.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 85.1% in the Premyer Liqa, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 85% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
85.1%
Model confidence
85.1%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 0.20/0.60