Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Qarabag are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while FCSB are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold an 18.1-point power-rating edge (71.2 v 53.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20