Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Qarabag are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while BK Hacken are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 32.4-point power-rating edge (71.2 v 38.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.4% in the UEFA Europa League, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
63.4%
Model confidence
63.4%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40