GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Europa League · 3/7/2024, 5:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Bayer Leverkusen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Qarabag are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Bayer Leverkusen are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Bayer Leverkusen hold a 2.3-point power-rating edge (71.2 v 73.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.5% in the UEFA Europa League, while Bayer Leverkusen holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Bayer Leverkusen

Probability

50.5%

Model confidence

50.5%

Bayer Leverkusen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

QarabagWWWLW

GF 16 · GA 6 · avg 3.20/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Bayer LeverkusenWWWWW

GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
QarabagBayer Leverkusen
50.0Attack79.5
100.0Defence66.7
66.7Form76.9
71.2Power73.5
1.04xG1.76
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