GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Europa League · 11/9/2023, 5:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Bayer Leverkusen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Qarabag are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDW), averaging 2.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Bayer Leverkusen are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Bayer Leverkusen hold a 2.3-point power-rating edge (71.2 v 73.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.5% in the UEFA Europa League, while Bayer Leverkusen holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Bayer Leverkusen

Probability

50.5%

Model confidence

50.5%

Bayer Leverkusen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

QarabagWLLDW

GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Bayer LeverkusenWWWWW

GF 17 · GA 7 · avg 3.40/1.40

BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
QarabagBayer Leverkusen
50.0Attack79.5
100.0Defence66.7
66.7Form76.9
71.2Power73.5
1.04xG1.76
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