Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Qarabag 3-2 Araz
Original prediction
Qarabag
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 79.8% | 52.4% | -27.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.56 | 13.8% | 25.3% | 11.4 pts |
| Away | 14.31 | 6.3% | 22.4% | 16.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
52.4%
Model confidence
52.4%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
QarabagWLWWW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ArazLLDWW
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
QarabagAraz
33.3Attack0.0
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form0.0
80.3Power23.7
1.41xG0.86