Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Qarabag are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Araz are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (WL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 7 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 34.9-point power-rating edge (75.9 v 41.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 78.3% in the Premyer Liqa, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 78% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 36% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
78.3%
Model confidence
78.3%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/1.50