Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Qarabag are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Ajax are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 27.3-point power-rating edge (71.2 v 43.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
54.6%
Model confidence
54.6%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00