Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sumqayıt · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Qabala are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 3.00 conceded, while Sumqayıt are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (WLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Sumqayıt hold a 19.4-point power-rating edge (33.1 v 52.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.1% in the Premyer Liqa, while Sumqayıt holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 26% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sumqayıt
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Sumqayıt has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/1.00