Qabalavs
Neftchi Baku
COMPLETEDAzerbaijan · Premyer Liqa · 9/18/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi Baku · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Qabala 0-3 Neftchi Baku
Original prediction
Neftchi Baku
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.03 | 14.9% | 26.6% | 11.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.6% | 27.9% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 1.47 | 61.5% | 45.5% | -16.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Neftchi Baku
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Neftchi Baku has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00