Puszcza Niepołomicevs
Polonia Bytom
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 10/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Puszcza Niepołomice · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 Polonia Bytom
Original prediction
Puszcza Niepołomice
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 37.3% | 35.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.0% | 28.9% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 35.6% | 35.5% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Puszcza Niepołomice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40