Puszcza Niepołomicevs
Lechia Gdansk
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 10/24/2026, 3:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lechia Gdansk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 Lechia Gdansk
Original prediction
Lechia Gdansk
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 33.6% | 30.0% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.3% | 28.1% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 40.1% | 41.9% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Lechia Gdansk
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Lechia Gdansk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00