NB INB I
Friday, 31 July 202619:00Updated today
Puskas Academy

Puskas Academy

Home
L
vs
19:00
Kisvarda FC

Kisvarda FC

Away
L
Pancho Arena
GoalVio prediction
48% confidence
Puskas Academy(48%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Puskas Academy
48%
Draw
27%
Kisvarda FC
25%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Puskas Academy
9
Kisvarda FC
9
Defence
Puskas Academy
27
Kisvarda FC
66
Momentum
Puskas Academy
0
Kisvarda FC
0
Danger (xG)
Puskas Academy
0.00
Kisvarda FC
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.68 xG for Puskas Academy and 0.96 xG for Kisvarda FC. Kisvarda FC's projected xG of 0.96 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Puskas Academy's Defensive Stability Score (27) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.64 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Puskas Academy's Defensive Stability (27) and Kisvarda FC's (66) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Puskas Academy)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Kisvarda FC)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Puskas Academy)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Kisvarda FC)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Puskas AcademyPuskas Academy
LD
Kisvarda FCKisvarda FC
LL

Probability breakdown

48% confidence
Puskas Academy48%
Draw27%
Kisvarda FC25%

Puskas Academy leads with 48% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Puskas Academy Favoured — Model Projects 1-0

Puskas Academy take on Kisvarda FC in NB I.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.68 expected goals for Puskas Academy against 0.96 for Kisvarda FC — a clear advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Puskas Academy's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 57% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 🔄 Head-to-Head Record Puskas Academy have won 4 of the last 10 meetings between these sides — a historically dominant record that the model treats as a meaningful signal when the underlying stats are otherwise close.

Why GoalVio backs this

Puskas Academy are generating a clear xG advantage — 1.68 projected against 0.96 for Kisvarda FC. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.72 is the clearest signal in the model that Puskas Academy are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Puskas Academy are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • These sides have drawn 3 of their last 10 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Puskas Academy

Puskas Academy

L
vs Başakşehir
16 Jul 2026
02
D
vs MTK Budapest
15 May 2026
22
Kisvarda FC

Kisvarda FC

L
vs Bukovyna
15 Jul 2026
01
L
vs Gyori ETO FC
16 May 2026
01

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Puskas Academy vs Kisvarda FC?

GoalVio's model predicts Puskas Academy to win with 48% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Puskas Academy vs Kisvarda FC?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Puskas Academy vs Kisvarda FC?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Puskas Academy vs Kisvarda FC?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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