Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tijuana W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (8%), 1-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Puebla W 1-1 Tijuana W
Original prediction
Tijuana W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.80 | 13.3% | 33.7% | 20.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.05 | 17.9% | 18.3% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.32 | 68.7% | 48.0% | -20.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–28%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Tijuana W
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Tijuana W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Puebla WLLLLL
GF 5 · GA 16 · avg 1.00/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Tijuana WWLLLW
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Puebla WTijuana W
43.3Attack43.3
0.0Defence20.0
10.0Form30.0
19.5Power32.4
2.19xG2.21