Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Puebla W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Puebla W 4-1 Necaxa W
Original prediction
Puebla W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.8% | 46.1% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.3% | 24.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.16 | 21.9% | 29.8% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Puebla W
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Puebla W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Puebla WLLLLW
GF 7 · GA 24 · avg 1.40/4.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Necaxa WLLLLL
GF 4 · GA 18 · avg 0.80/3.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Puebla WNecaxa W
33.3Attack16.7
0.0Defence0.0
0.0Form0.0
14.2Power9.2
2.03xG1.63