Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Puebla 0-1 Toluca
Original prediction
Toluca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.06 | 18.4% | 21.9% | 3.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.19 | 22.2% | 22.9% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.57 | 59.4% | 55.2% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
55.2%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PueblaWLWWL
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TolucaWWWWW
GF 15 · GA 2 · avg 3.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
PueblaToluca
47.6Attack81.0
57.1Defence71.4
61.9Form76.2
58.7Power75.4
1.02xG1.82