Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monterrey · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Puebla 1-4 Monterrey
Original prediction
Monterrey
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.86 | 24.1% | 30.9% | 6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.7% | 26.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.85 | 50.2% | 42.5% | -7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Monterrey
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Monterrey has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PueblaDDLDL
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
MonterreyWDWLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PueblaMonterrey
33.3Attack57.6
63.9Defence51.5
44.4Form51.5
50.2Power53.9
1.03xG1.16