Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Puebla 0-0 Leon, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Puebla 1-1 Leon
Original prediction
Leon
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.85 | 32.6% | 31.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.4% | 30.3% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 38.9% | 38.2% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.27 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Projected Score
Puebla 0–0 Leon
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Leon
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Leon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PueblaLDLWL
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
LeonWDWLW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PueblaLeon
36.7Attack46.7
60.0Defence63.3
46.7Form56.7
50.7Power57.6
0.85xG1.05