PSV Eindhovenvs
Sparta Rotterdam
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 9/13/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PSV Eindhoven · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta Rotterdam
Original prediction
PSV Eindhoven
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.16 | 81.5% | 65.1% | -16.4 pts |
| Draw | 8.27 | 11.4% | 17.9% | 6.5 pts |
| Away | 13.28 | 7.1% | 17.0% | 9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
PSV Eindhoven
Probability
65.1%
Model confidence
65.1%
PSV Eindhoven has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 5 · avg 3.40/1.00
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80