PSV Eindhovenvs
Shakhtar Donetsk
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 9/10/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PSV Eindhoven · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk
Original prediction
PSV Eindhoven
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 63.6% | 57.7% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.75 | 20.0% | 20.4% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 5.82 | 16.4% | 21.9% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.75 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
PSV Eindhoven
Probability
57.7%
Model confidence
57.7%
PSV Eindhoven has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 6 · avg 3.60/1.20
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60