PSM Makassarvs
Persebaya Surabaya
COMPLETEDIndonesia · Liga 1 · 10/22/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Persebaya Surabaya · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
PSM Makassar 1-0 Persebaya Surabaya
Original prediction
Persebaya Surabaya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.29 | 27.5% | 28.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 27.8% | 25.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.02 | 44.7% | 45.9% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Persebaya Surabaya
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Persebaya Surabaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80