Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Itesalat · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Proxy 0-0 Itesalat, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Proxy 0-3 Itesalat
Original prediction
Itesalat
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 30.9% | 25.2% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.70 | 33.6% | 31.8% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 35.5% | 43.1% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.6 pts
Projected Score
Proxy 0–0 Itesalat
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Itesalat
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Itesalat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ProxyLLLWL
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
ItesalatWLWWW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ProxyItesalat
11.1Attack44.4
61.1Defence72.2
16.7Form66.7
31.8Power62.8
0.59xG1.05