Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ternana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Progresso 0-1 Ternana
Original prediction
Ternana
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.35 | 16.6% | 32.9% | 16.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 23.8% | 27.4% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.49 | 59.6% | 39.7% | -19.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Ternana
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Ternana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ProgressoLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
TernanaWWDWD
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ProgressoTernana
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24