Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wanderers · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Progreso are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Wanderers are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Wanderers hold a 16.4-point power-rating edge (36.0 v 52.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.6% in the Primera División, while Wanderers holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Wanderers
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Wanderers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80