Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Progreso are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Penarol are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Penarol hold a 30.0-point power-rating edge (36.0 v 65.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 66.3% in the Primera División, while Penarol holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
66.3%
Model confidence
66.3%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80