Progres Niederkornvs
UN Kaerjeng 97
COMPLETEDLuxembourg · National Division · 10/17/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Progres Niederkorn · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Progres Niederkorn 1-2 UN Kaerjeng 97
Original prediction
Progres Niederkorn
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.2% | 53.2% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.4% | 21.3% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 29.3% | 25.4% | -3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Progres Niederkorn
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
53.2%
Progres Niederkorn has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 1 · avg 2.80/0.20
GF 23 · GA 8 · avg 4.60/1.60