PärnuvsNõmme Kalju II

Pärnu are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 3.40 conceded, while Nõmme Kalju II are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Nõmme Kalju II hold a 33.6-point power-rating edge (29.9 v 63.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-4 the most likely exact scoreline at 77.7% in the Esiliiga B, while Nõmme Kalju II holds the strongest overall chance at 78% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 77% BTTS chance and 91% for over 2.5 goals.