Primavera SPvs
Noroeste
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Paulista · 9/12/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Primavera SP · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Primavera SP 2-2 Noroeste
Original prediction
Primavera SP
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.4% | 56.7% | 16.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.1% | 23.4% | -6.6 pts |
| Away | 3.05 | 29.5% | 19.9% | -9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.99 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Primavera SP
Probability
56.7%
Model confidence
56.7%
Primavera SP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 5 · avg 3.40/1.00
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60