Preston Lionsvs
South Melbourne
COMPLETEDAustralia · Australia Cup · 8/26/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Preston Lions · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Preston Lions 1-2 South Melbourne
Original prediction
Preston Lions
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.3% | 24.6% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 29.9% | 29.6% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.1–17%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Preston Lions
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Preston Lions has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20