Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Prato · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Prato 1-1 Flaminia
Original prediction
Prato
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 61.8% | 44.2% | -17.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.1% | 27.5% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 6.30 | 14.1% | 28.4% | 14.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.69 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Prato
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Prato has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PratoDWWDW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FlaminiaDLLDW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PratoFlaminia
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24