Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kiffen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (7%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
PPJ 4-1 Kiffen
Original prediction
Kiffen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.98 | 30.3% | 26.1% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 23.0% | 19.1% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 46.7% | 54.8% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–17%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Kiffen
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Kiffen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PPJDLWDL
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
KiffenWWWWD
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PPJKiffen
59.6Attack75.4
43.9Defence56.1
42.1Form73.7
49.4Power69.0
1.64xG2.56