Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Potenza 0-0 Cavese, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Potenza 4-2 Cavese
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 45.8% | 36.5% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.2% | 30.9% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 26.0% | 32.6% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Projected Score
Potenza 0–0 Cavese
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.9%
Model confidence
36.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PotenzaDLWDW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CaveseLDDWL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PotenzaCavese
33.3Attack36.0
58.8Defence62.2
37.7Form42.3
45.1Power49.1
0.80xG0.82