Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Casarano · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Potenza are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Casarano are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Casarano hold a 5.5-point power-rating edge (45.1 v 50.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.8% in the Serie C - Girone C, while Casarano holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Casarano
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
14.8%
Casarano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80